💰 In 2024, global CIB revenues rose to $827 billion — or $989 billion including non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). But beneath the rebound, the industry is undergoing a structural realignment: non-bank financial institutions are gaining ground, AI is scaling from pilots to firmwide transformation, digital assets are moving into the mainstream, and geopolitical fragmentation is reshaping trade and capital flows.
📊 The report models three distinct scenarios that illustrate how the CIB landscape could evolve by 2030 — based on the rise of NBFIs, AI scaling from pilots to firmwide transformation, adoption of digital assets, and growing geopolitical fragmentation.
📈 The most likely of our scenarios shows the global CIB wallet growing ~30%+ to $1.3T by 2030, with revenues migrating toward financial sponsors while corporate and institutional fees decline. The report explores what this means for banks, investors, and market infrastructure players.
This is a pivotal moment. Leaders that act early, scale selectively, and place targeted bets on next-gen growth will be best positioned to capture value in the decade ahead.
The report is authored by BCG’s Corporate and Investment Banking experts: Julian Hein, Tobias Wuergler, PhD, Christian (Chris) Schmid, Amrit Shahani, Ingmar Broemstrup, Roy Choudhury, Youssef Intabli, Dominik Bailey, and Quirin Stockinger.