The combined CIB and nonbank revenue pool is projected to reach approximately $1.1 trillion in 2026, more than 7% above 2025, and approximately $1.4 trillion by 2030.
The report highlights three shifts shaping the industry’s next chapter:
💰 1. Record growth creates an opportunity to improve returns. Today’s revenue strength gives CIBs the capacity to invest in growth and improve performance. Our 2030 scenarios point to approximately 15% RoTE for the industry average and 21% for leaders, but capturing that opportunity will depend on execution.
🤝 2. The clients driving growth have changed. Traditional corporates account for 46% of the 2026 CIB-only client wallet. Other institutions, hedge funds, and sponsors together account for 54%, with hedge funds and sponsors forecast to grow ~9% and ~8% annually through 2030, compared with ~2% for traditional corporates. Banks increasingly need to organize around client relationships, not isolated products.
🤖 3. AI will reshape CIB, just as electronic trading reshaped Global Markets. AI is not only a cost-out story. It could bring more engineers and technology specialists into front-office businesses while freeing up to 40% of current middle- and back-office FTE capacity by 2030. That is capacity, not a forecast of 40% fewer employees.
✨ The golden window is open. The question is how CIBs will use it.
Thanks to the report’s authors, Christian (Chris) Schmid, Julian Hein, Ingmar Broemstrup, Tobias Wuergler, PhD, and Amrit Shahani, and principal contributors Dominik Bailey, Raluca Gligor, and Dr. Nicolaus Heinen.
